Season Perspective, Playoff History, Thanksgiving Prediction Results and More

It is back to practice (optional) today after a well-deserved day off for the Allen Americans. I would assume most players will take the time to heal the bump and bruises. The team will has two days to prepare for the second round series against the Idaho Steelheads who will arrive in Allen today. The teams will play two games in Allen (Friday and Saturday) before heading to Boise for games three thru six (May 10, 12, 13, 15). If there is a game seven it will be back in Allen on May 17.

– I keep thinking about what an amazing season this has been for the Americans. From dead last in December to second place in April. Allen was the last team or close to last to find an affiliate. Allen had the fewest contract players assigned of any team in the league. Injuries to two key players, Stephen Baylis never played a game and Spencer Asuchak was injured in game one. Losing those two players represented 50 goals out of the lineup right from the beginning of the season. Throw in a bunch of suspensions, personal issues, on ice issues, off ice issues and you have to say making the elite eight of the Kelly Cup playoffs is a credit to the entire Allen team, coaches and staff.

– One way to put it all in perspective is looking at the playoff results for Allen in the past. Everyone remembers the Kelly Cups in 2015 and 2016. Here are the playoff results since. Allen has already matched the best playoff finish since the last Kelly Cup, with a chance for more.

• 2017 – Lost in 2nd round (4-2 to Colorado)
• 2018 – Lost in 1st round (4-3 to Idaho)
• 2019 – Missed Playoffs
• 2020 – No Playoffs
• 2021 – Lost in 2nd round (3-1 to Fort Wayne)
• 2022 – Lost in 1st round (4-1 to Rapid City)
• 2023 – Advanced to 2nd round to play Idaho

– You are probably all familiar with my commitment to eat crow after the playoffs, since I predicted the Americans would not make the playoffs. It has become the point of a lot of good-natured chirping/kidding as the Americans turned around the season. What isn’t as well known is I use a model based on NHL playoff history that says 80% of playoff teams are decided by Thanksgiving. Typically, that means just two or three teams not in playoff positions at Thanksgiving will make the playoffs. It is strictly by the numbers with some commentary on possible teams that will defy the model. The model was the least accurate ever this season. Teams considered a lock missed the playoffs and teams in last place made the playoffs. Here are the results of the predictions from Thanksgiving. These were the standings and point percentages at Thanksgiving. The teams with an asterisk ended up making the playoffs.

NORTH DIVISION (2/4 correct)

• 1. Worcester (.853)
• 2. Newfoundland (.794) *
• 3. Reading (.633) *
• 4. Trois Riviéres (.469)

Just two of the four teams in playoff positions at Thanksgiving made the playoff. (Newfoundland & Reading). The biggest surprise was Worcester who had the best record in the league at Thanksgiving (.853) and ended up not making the playoffs. The commentary at the time said this. “The top two in the North Division are pretty much a lock but the last playoff team will come down to Trois Riviéres, Adirondack or Maine.” Adirondack and Maine made the playoffs.

SOUTH DIVISION (2/4 correct)

• 1. Florida (.700) *
• 2. Atlanta (.679)
• 3. Savannah (.654)
• 4. South Carolina (.643) *

The commentary has it nailed but nevertheless the model failed. Here is what I said at Thanksgiving. “The South Division has six teams with a points percentage above .500 and in playoff territory. Greenville is at .567 and Jacksonville is at .533. Jacksonville and Greenville made the playoffs last season and could jump into a playoff position. Savannah is a first-year franchise and has cooled down (4-3-3–0 in last 10 games) after a great start to the season (5-1-0-0). It will be hard for the Ghost Pirates to maintain a playoff position.” Turned out Greenville and Jacksonville made the playoffs.

CENTRAL DIVISION (2/4 correct)

• 1. Cincinnati (.821) *
• 2. Indy (.656) *
• 3. Kalamazoo (.536)
• 4. Wheeling (.467)

The model failed but I had the final outcome right. Here is what I said at Thanksgiving. “Of all of the divisions the Central is the most likely to have a different outcome than it looks like today. It is hard to say Fort Wayne (.464) and Toledo (.393) won’t make the playoffs based on past history. Iowa (.321) is unlikely to make the playoffs, but I could see Fort Wayne and/or Toledo leap-frog Kalamazoo and/or Wheeling for a playoff spot.” Fort Wayne and Toledo both made the playoffs.

MOUNTAIN DIVISION (2/4 correct)

• 1. Idaho (.844) *
• 2. Kansas City (.607) *
• 3. Wichita (.600)
• 4. Tulsa (.533)

This was the giant fail both in the model and in my commentary. No wonder I will be eating crow. Here is what I said at Thanksgiving. “This is another division where every team, but one has a record of .500+. Rapid City and Utah are lurking just behind Tulsa. Utah was the #1 team in the regular season last season and Rapid City was #2, so it is easy to see them moving into a playoff position. Allen is in last place in the division with a .393 points percentage and is the only team out of contention for a playoff spot at this point.” Allen and Utah made the playoffs.– The overall results were not 80% accurate or 70% accurate of 60% accurate but 50% accurate. You could throw darts and be as accurate. The biggest surprises were Allen on the upside, going from .393 and last place at Thanksgiving to .535 and second place by the end of the season. On the downside and a real shocker was Worcester, who went from first place (.853) at Thanksgiving to fifth place (.500) and out of the playoffs by the end of the season. I am going to rethink this model if I use it again next season to predict playoff teams but the standings plus other factors. I need to reduce the chances of making a steady diet of crow.– First Round playoff stats. Cincinnati vs Fort Wayne series is tied 3-3 so could change the stats.

• Jacksonville punched its ticket to the second round of the playoffs with a 4-2 win over Greenville last night.
• Only one first round series was a 4-0 sweep, Toledo over Indy.
• Only one first round series will go seven games. Fort Wayne plays at Cincinnati tonight.
• In only one series the lower seeded team won. #4 seed Florida beat #1 seed South Carolina 4-2.
• 22% of games went to overtime.
• Road teams had a record of 21-25 in the first round. Goals scored were exactly the same between road and home teams, 130-130.
• Average attendance was 4265 ranging from 2271 (Kansas City) to 8171 (Toledo).

– I will have plenty of Allen vs Idaho series preview information the next two days but here is one stat that has stood out to me from the regular season. Allen was outshot in 74% of it games (53 of 72) with a record of 26-26-1-0 (.500). Idaho was outshot in 19% of its games (14 of 72). Most impressive is Idaho did not lose a single game when being out shot with a perfect 14-0-0-0 record.

– Second round, Division Finals, playoff matchups. Not many upsets thus far:

• North Division – #1 seed Newfoundland vs #2 seed Reading.
• South Division – #2 seed Jacksonville vs #4 seed Florida.
• Central Division – #2 seed Toledo vs either #1 seed Cincinnati or #4 seed Fort Wayne.
• Mountain Division – #1 seed Idaho vs #2 seed Allen.

DID YOU KNOW: How important is playing with a lead in the playoffs? Records and point percentages tell the tale thus far in the Kelly Cup playoffs:25-4 (.862) – Combined record for teams leading after first period.4-32 (.111) – Combined record for teams trailing after the second period.35-10 (.778) – Combined record for teams scoring the first goal of the game.